NKE LONG

On Mar 21, 2025, the automated trader took a long position in NKE at $88.42 (200 shares), applying the Mean Reversion — US Large Cap strategy. The thesis: fade short-term dislocations in liquid large-cap names using bollinger confluence.

The setup triggered because Mean Reversion — US Large Cap demands specific entry conditions — close >2σ below the 20-day sma on the daily chart.; rsi(14) < 30 for two consecutive sessions.; stock is in the s&p 500 with adv > 5m shares.. NKE met these checks, so the system sized the position at 200 shares, risking at most 2.0% of account equity.

The broader context: Buys S&P 500 constituents that have stretched >2 standard deviations below their 20-day mean while maintaining a positive fundamental backdrop. Exits on reversion to the VWAP or a fresh volatility expansion. Designed for ranging or mildly bullish regimes. A long entry here was a bet that the setup would resolve in the trader's favor before the time-based exit.

Risk was managed with a hard stop at −5.0% of entry and a profit target at +6.0%. Price reverts to the 20-day SMA.; Stop-loss triggered at 1.5× the 20-day ATR..

The trade closed on Mar 29, 2025 at $84.10 after 8 days, for a realized P&L of -$864 (-4.89%). The thesis did not play out: the stop or time-based exit triggered before the setup could resolve favorably.

Educational takeaway: Mean Reversion — US Large Cap trades this exact setup repeatedly — the edge comes from disciplined execution of the same rules, not from any single trade's outcome. Over 412 historical trades the strategy has won 61% of the time with a 9.2% max drawdown. No single trade is representative; the sample is what matters.