CL=F LONG

On Jan 21, 2025, the automated trader took a long position in CL=F at $78.42 (4 shares), applying the Macro Trend — Futures CTA strategy. The thesis: Crude oil 20-day breakout; 4 contracts.

The setup triggered because Macro Trend — Futures CTA demands specific entry conditions — close above 20-day donchian channel high.; trades in the direction of the 50/200 sma cross.; atr-normalized risk per unit ≤ 0.5% of equity.. CL=F met these checks, so the system sized the position at 4 shares, risking at most 0.5% of account equity.

The broader context: A diversified trend-following book in 24 highly-liquid futures markets. Enters on 20-day breakouts, exits on 10-day breakouts against position. Allocates equal risk across markets and sizes by inverse volatility to keep heat constant. A long entry here was a bet that the setup would resolve in the trader's favor before the time-based exit.

Risk was managed with a hard stop at −4.0% of entry and a profit target at +0.0%. Close below 10-day Donchian channel low.; Volatility expansion doubles the stop (re-size, not exit)..

The trade closed on Feb 14, 2025 at $84.10 after 24 days, for a realized P&L of +$11,360 (+7.25%). The thesis played out: the exit rules fired as the setup resolved in the trader's favor.

Educational takeaway: Macro Trend — Futures CTA trades this exact setup repeatedly — the edge comes from disciplined execution of the same rules, not from any single trade's outcome. Over 1543 historical trades the strategy has won 38% of the time with a 16.5% max drawdown. No single trade is representative; the sample is what matters.